Frankfurt Auto Show – Which Chinese companies will be there?
This piece of news wont be a mega list of Chinese auto makers names, in fact, it will be quite short:
There, if you blinked, or scrolled too fast, you may have missed that list. Have another look to make sure you see it.
Thats right, only 1 car maker from China – plucky Brilliance, is going to show up in Frankfurt and they are taking their BS6, BS4 and the Coupe with them. After much chest beating from the Chinese marques about showing up in Frankfurt under their own banners, most of them have fled from the limelight. Geelys CEO, Li Shu Fu, made a big song and dance about going to Frankfurt auto show, but Geely have quietly backed out of the show. Shuang Huan motors said they were going to show up via with their Little Noble and CEO SUV but seem to have backed out under pressure from Mercedes and BMW over their clone cars.
In the 2005 Frankfurt show, Geely, Brilliance and Jiangling turned up, China Car Times isnt so sure why the Chinese boys are so camera shy this year, are the Euros against the Chinese showing up on their turf, or are the Chinese afraid of the Euros response to their cars? Perhaps both.
Tweet This
Share on Facebook
Digg This
Save to delicious
Stumble it
RSS Feed
The Chinese CEOs figured out that by the time they shipped a few vehicles to Germany and flew the entourage or 20 staff to man the show (5-6 for the show, the rest would be officials on a free holiday) that it would be cheaper for them to stay in China and buy another vehicle for design inspiration. I would bet they send at least one guy though so they can get their new designs for 08.
Good on Brilliance for going. Shows they want to eventually crack the Euro market and although they still have some work to do its a step in the right direction. If they don’t try then how would they know?
Who can’t resist a car thats designation starts with BS?
Bl**dy Spectacular
It is impossible for Chinese to crack into the European market now, especially with new ultra-low carbon emissions regulations that makes even the likes of BMW and Mercedes scream, and make Porsche attemp a VW takeover just to average out their high carbon emissions 911 with low emissions VW Polo. There is no room for the Chinese in the US either, where weaker brands now must offer “life-time” warranty to match Chrysler’s. Imagine the life-time warranty on Chinese vehicles, that’s the financial suicide.
In other word, Chinese are better off staying home and focusing on 3rd world markets.
calm down.
I don’t think he knows what calm is…
Hyundai’s embarassment of the 80s anyone ??? And the 5 years warranty and yet it is still not able to make it big. If Chrysler has to offer life time warranty, then what does Hyundai have to offer to reach Chrysler level ?
well, look at it this way, a do u think o Chrysler when you think of safty and reliability? Nope, so forget even hyundai, i still remeber thoes nasty Excels, 5 year 100,000km warranty, and even with that most didnt make it past 3 years
> And the 5 years warranty and yet it is still not able to make it big.
1. Hyundai warranty is 10 years, not 5.
2. Hyundai’s projected 2007 US sales is 520K. Throw in Kia’s 360K and you are looking at 900K US sale.
> If Chrysler has to offer life time warranty, then what does Hyundai have to offer to reach Chrysler level ?
It doesn’t. Chrysler, GM, Suzuki, and Mitsubishi now offer longer/better warranty terms than Hyundai does, yet Hyundai hasn’t changed its warranty terms. An interesting observation is that Chrysler that offers “life time warranty” builds its compact passenger cars with Hyundai-licensed engines and has asked Hyundai to supply powertrain for its Chery assembled vehicles in China(The terms of deal is that Hyundai’s Chinese engine factory supplies Chery, while Chrysler’s US engine factory supplies Hyundai and Kia’s US plants which has no 4-banger capacity. This is possible because Chrysler cars now use Hyundai engine designs) because Cherysler doesn’t trust the reliability of Chery ACTECO engines, especially since all new Chrysler vehicles are now covered under life-time warranty. Hyundai’s hesitant about shipping its engines to Chery because of piracy concerns, even if it is a complete engine tranny supply deal.
An exposé of Mr. I_Hate_China’s untenable position :
Firstly, in Australia and majority of the world its 5 year, 100,000km. Maybe Americans are more gullible to believe their Hyundai will actually last 10 years? I don’t know. Yes, they have performed well on reliability surveys….after the first year. We have to wait and see how they go into their fifth year, or dare i say it 10th.
Secondly, ‘Yes’! In the business world we all love ‘projected sales’(or in your case its more like ‘Sales target’. Let me tell you the difference just in case you are confused. A ‘sales target’ is a number that Hyundai wants to sell, different from what they expect to sell, and even more different to what they will actually sell – http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070904/UPDATE/709040381/1148/rss25). SO before you rattle off these numbers as if its gospel, think about what they actually mean. Hyundai can project 10 million sales if they want, it doesn’t really change the fact that they won’t, and that they are no.4/5 in the US based on a single factor, cheapness.
Thirdly, surely you are misguided if you want to compare Chery to Hyundai. When Hyundai made its first car and failed miserably, Chery was not even around, yet u seem to compare them with Hyundai as if it was a level playing field, can you get more biased and illogical? I don’t even want to get into how the Korean government actively propped up Hyundai to get it off the mark. But the fact is that Chery have signed a deal to supply Chevy (GM – the second largest maker in the world) is an upward trend worthy of optimism.
And just on that point, Chevy is certainly in a much better position that Chrysler in terms of brand prestige. I beg the question that Chrysler may have gone the same way as MG had Daimler not stepped in? (im so glad Daimler sold them last month) But that’s another story. So in terms of alliance, the jury is still out if Chery struck a deal with a bigger player than the ‘mighty’ Hyundai.
Fifthly, don’t be self-obsessed in thinking that should Chery desire it they cannot get their hands on a Hyundai engine. The fact is, although they might be better than Chery’s at present, they are not an industry benchmark by a long way, any VW engine will be a better option to copy than a Hyundai. If you think the Car industry is Korean/Hyudaicentric then buddy u need to do more research, and no, not on Korean websites. I read one comparison of theirs comparing the NF Sonata to the Accord Euro, claiming that overall package of the Sonata was better than a Euro, only to find out that they had leveled the comparison of a top of the line v6 Sonata Elite against a 2.4L 4 cylinder, base model Euro. I mean good try, but I’d still go for the Honda even if the base model costs more. What’s more narcissistic was their attempt in the US to compare a Sonata to a BMW 5 series. Well, it’s the same size and the Hyundai is cheaper, and that’s pretty much it, everything else they ignored because the 5 series will leave the Hyundai in the stone-age. I mean what’s the point other than to boost ur own ego? Any educated person will understand that BMW and other top brands aren’t exactly standing still as Hyundai grows. U simply have to accept that different marques are aimed at different markets and the Chinese car are starting at the very bottom. It’s not fair to say that they are destined to stay at the bottom or say they won’t improve, which they most certainly will – GM & Toyoya have accepted that, yet you can’t seem to. Is it because you’re in the know better than them? If so I take all I just said back. …..I didn’t think so.
Lastly, I think there is a certain degree of justified fear by Hyundai (and other low end brands)since they brand is still stuck in the ‘cheap n nasty’ category, and that’s exactly where the Chinese competition will be heading. Expect those inflated so called ‘projected sales’ to dip. Why?? for starters they have revised their numbers down for US and China (http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070904/UPDATE/709040381/1148/rss25), and the entry of Chinese cars will only send that margin down on a further free fall, not only in the US. So u can underestimate them at Hyundai’s peril. Only time will tell.
Ok I hate China. I don’t what China did to you to make you her that much. But I always remember this : “Judge yourself before you judge someone else”
Do you like it when people were bashing Korean cars back in the old days ? Just remember how Hyundai started off or even Korean carmakers in general, and you will see. So do not quickly make assumptions and conclusions. Were Korean cars on par with the German, American, Japanese in term of emission standards, technology when they first started off, ok no need to go back to the olds, just talk about the present days, Are Korean cars on the same level of Japanese, European, American ones even now ? And How old are those Chinese carmakers and you expect them to meet all the standards of Western cars.
Johnson,
I edited your comment because you went a bit over the top.
I think Mr. hate China has a fairly valid point, design wise the Chinese makers are only just getting there, quality wise they are getting pretty close (Chery A1 etc) safety will get better after recent humiliations (hell, I drive Japanese cars) but emissions wise they are way off at the moment.
You are right however, the Chinese will work at it and work at it some more until they do get safety, emissions and designs cracked and then they will go into EU/USA by storm. This is going to be at least 3-7 years before you see the emergence of several Chinese world players though (Chery, Roewe/MG etc, then the smaller guys Great Wall..)
> quality wise they are getting pretty close (Chery A1 etc)
A1 is just a stretched Matiz/QQ. It cannot be sold in the US and EU.
> the Chinese will work at it and work at it some more until they do get safety, emissions and designs cracked and then they will go into EU/USA by storm.
Or stay home and enhjoy the fastest growing and soon to be the larget auto market in the world.
Increasing safety and quality can be fatal in Chinese auto market, where price is everything while quality, safety and emissions could safely be compromised to attain desired price level. It is this market condition that prevents the emergence of Chinese world car.
Ashley, I have no doubts Mr Hate China has a valid point, in fact I tend to agree with him to a certain degree and have my reservations. However it gets annoying if they persist in negativity putting down an entire industry based on a few manufacturer’s incompetence. I merely wanted to point out to him that his pessimistic attitude, if shared commonly stifles innovation and vision, and it’s quite ironical that he so vehemently supports Korean cars when they have undergone the same ridicule in the not so distant past. Quite frankly, I also wanted to point out how flawed his ‘warranty’ example is. No hard feelings. I encourage free opinion and commentary, but have some decency to remain open-minded.
Alrighty then, no sweary words though, its a family website for everyone, including wankers.
I did look at buying a Hyundai Elantra sports for my wife, but it was duller than my used bath water on the inside, the outside was pretty though. The new Sonata seems to follow the same rule, pretty on the outside and a swarm of cheap plastic on the inside. Really disappointing.
Alas this is not koreacartimes
The Chinese have a long way to come but I’m sure their learning curve will be shorter than the Koreans or Japanese. We’ll be seeing more cars produced for consumption(under familiar names) in the European and American market exported from China. I think the Honda Fit/Jazz is an excellent example of this. It’s all about globalization and economics…I mean, crap, most BMW M series sold in the states are made in South Africa as well as the upcoming Mercedes C Class. People were once afraid of Mercedes and BMW’s being produced in the USA. It’s just all a matter of percieved quality.
> The Chinese have a long way to come but I’m sure their learning curve will be shorter than the Koreans or Japanese.
An interesting observation is while Japanese and Koreans engineered their cars to the US and EU standards from the earliest days, Chinese engineered their cars to Chinese standard, where safety and quality is sacrificed to cut cost.
> I think the Honda Fit/Jazz is an excellent example of this.
Honda Fit for Euro export has 90% Japan-imported or Japanese supplier supplied content. Plus it is a Honda, not a Chinese car.
Ashley,
Why is this cloner in the motor show ?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6989384.stm
No idea, cant see news.bbc.co.uk from China because the BBC spread anti PRC government LIES!!!
lol, can tell the people who aren’t in China by the ones who post bbc or wikipedia links.
heres a encouraging article from Caradvice here in Australia about Chinese car’s potential. As you guys might know the former head of GM Shanghai is now the head of GM Holden and he predicts a good future for Chinese cars.
http://www.caradvice.com.au/4789/chinese-cars-not-ready-for-australia/
Johnson, how would the average Aussie react if Holden or Ford started making Commodores and Falcons in China? Some of the components are sourced from here already and they have the technology to build them but I think you would have riots in the streets and torching of cars… Look what happened when they told people not to fly flags on Australia day.
It’s inevitable that they will ship them there sometime in the future but I guess it would be the small and mid size cars rather than the 2 main ones although anything is possible.
I don’t think thats forthcoming actually. Holden has a very well strcutured export program in terms of its locally produced range, and indeed plans to export more. In terms of parts source from China, its just another aspect of business, and value for money comes first, and most aussies accept that reality. We all want holdens and ford to be abit cheaper actually. However, i think so long as RnD and design of the vehilcles take place here, aimed at a local market theres always enough leverage because it essentially still Aussie.
As for the flag thing, yeah there were some issues pertaining to other political and social matters at that time. I think it’ll be fine.
What you don’t understand is that the new EU carbon emissions regulation to fight global warming is a big deal, it even triggered Porsche to take over VW and plan a Golf based Porsche just to lower their average carbon emissions per vehicle.
The forthcoming EU carbon emissions reglation mandate that all auto manufacturers attain Smart-level average carbon emissions from their vehicles by 2012. Chinese can’t meet this regulation and are blocked from the market all together.
Seeing many Chinese cars are using Japanese engines anyway this isn’t as big a problem as you may think it is. They have 4 years to sort it out and they will find a way. That technology will be designed by someone like Bosch or another 3rd party and onsold to customers around the world. Eventually the PRC will enact similar laws here and force them to do it but not for awhile.
This would not have been the only reason Porsche wanted VW. They have many common parts between the cars as well so have to protect their interests.
> Seeing many Chinese cars are using Japanese engines anyway this isn’t as big a problem as you may think it is.
The Mitsubishi 4G63 and 4G64 that you mention are so old and obsolete that Mitsubishi ditched the engines themselves and adapted Hyundai engine designs instead.
No, you cannot meet the US California Emission Standard with 4G63 or 4G64. Briiliance BS6 did meet Euro IV but at a massive output loss.
i think what he means to say is that he hopes the ‘Chinese can’t meet this regulation and are blocked from the market all together.’
Dude, if they can send a man into space, they can make a proper car given time. Have any Koreans been to space yet? Maybe Hyundai should sent some 1
Dunno about space but I think the CEO went to jail for some serious fraud charges.. Maybe if he found his true love (a nice Hyundai) he could change his name to I like China instead.
Prosecutors have also investigated Chung’s son, Kia Motors President Chung Eui-sun on related charges, but they have not arrested him.
It runs in the family.
Meh, maybe I should change my name to Sun Myung Moon or I_Hate_Everybody
Hey Ashley, do you ever get warnings about your webpage being blocked in China if there is content deemed “inappropriate” or are your servers in Europe and you just edit the page from China?
Websites just timeout and wont connect if they are banned, but they always load via proxies anyway.
The govt has a special hate for several websites (news.bbc.co.uk especially) and I cant get them to load for love nor money, even with URL cloaking.
Server is in the USA, I edit from my office
Awesome, I’m glad you have a workaround. It’s nice to be able to read news on the Chinese automotive industry from an unbiased source. There’s only so many, “establishing oriental handcrafting of metallic ore with ornate talisman design” Babelfish translations/press releases I can read. In response to Johnson, just ignore the I_hate bloke, he’s been a cancer on Chinacarforums as well. Many of his points are valid but I have no blind hatred. I don’t agree with Chinese politics or their industrial tactics…however, I’m fascinated by what’s going on. These are interesting times and it’s like watching a baby learn to walk….
point taken.
sorry guys, i have problems posting looooog replies so i have to do it in peices, bare with me. This is in reply to one of Mr I_Hate_China’s earlier comments.
An exposé of Mr. I_Hate_China’s untenable position :
Firstly, in Australia and majority of the world its 5 year, 100,000km. Maybe Americans are more gullible to believe their Hyundai will actually last 10 years? There are surreys release acknowledging their ‘reliability’, but that’s after 1 year. Let’s wait and see how they go after 5 or, dare I say it, 10 years. Good luck to them.
Secondly, ‘Yes’! In the business world we all love ‘projected sales’(or in your case its more like ‘Sales target’. Let me tell you the difference just in case you are confused. A ‘sales target’ is a number that Hyundai wants to sell, different from what they expect to sell, and even more different to what they will actually sell – http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070904/UPDATE/709040381/1148/rss25). So before you rattle off these numbers as if its gospel, think about what they actually mean. Hyundai can project 10 million sales if they want, it doesn’t really change the fact that they won’t, and that they are no.4/5 in the US based on a single factor, cheapness.
> Maybe Americans are more gullible to believe their Hyundai will actually last 10 years?
Yes. That’s what gets Americans to put down $35,000 for a Hyundai.
> A ‘sales target’ is a number that Hyundai wants to sell, different from what they expect to sell, and even more different to what they will actually sell.
I was quoting the new “downgraded” sales projection.
>Yes. That’s what gets Americans to put down $35,000 for a Hyundai.
OK Gullible bordering on stupid? (applicable only to Hyundai buyers, i love my yank friends)
> lets see the source – i posted my source, and it wasnt 520K which was only a ‘sales target’. are u still not understanding the difference?
Thirdly, surely you are misguided if you want to compare Chery to Hyundai. When Hyundai made its first car and failed miserably, Chery was not even around, yet u seem to compare them with Hyundai as if it was a level playing field, can you get more biased and illogical? I don’t even want to get into how the Korean government actively propped up Hyundai to get it off the mark. But the fact is that Chery have signed a deal to supply Chevy (GM – the second largest maker in the world) is an upward trend worthy of optimism.
And just on that point, Chevy is certainly in a much better position than Chrysler in terms of brand prestige. I beg the question that Chrysler may have gone the same way as MG had Daimler not stepped in? (im so glad Daimler sold them last month) But that’s another story. So in terms of alliance, the jury is still out if Chery struck a deal with a bigger player than the ‘mighty’ Hyundai.
> When Hyundai made its first car and failed miserably, Chery was not even around, yet u seem to compare them with Hyundai as if it was a level playing field, can you get more biased and illogical?
I am trying to compare Hyundai of 1985(The year Excel hit the US market) with Chery of 2010(The year first US-market Cherys arrive). The market condition has become so hostile to newcomers, there is no room for the new guy in town anymore. I doubt Hyundai would have it themselves if the US market of 1985 had tough emissions, durability, and safety standard, as well as “life-time” warranty as it does now.
U hope theres no room for new guys anymore. I love it how u seem to predict the future and rant them off as if it was fact….hahahahaha.
how are u gonne compare the chery to the 1985 excel? the only Standard feature the 1985 Excel had was a steering wheel. The Chery will win hands down. oh yes, and the Excel didnt sell in 1985, but Hyundai give up on the market? no, they persisted and got to today. By your logic, Hyundai shouldn’t have even bothered. Perhaps the notion of hypocricy escapes u?
> U hope theres no room for new guys anymore.
I am not hoping. There isn’t.
Casualties of US markets since 1985
- Daihatsu
- Sterling(MG Rover)
- Kia(Kia of 2007 isn’t really Kia, but just a brand of Hyundai)
- Daewoo
- Yugo
- Volkswagen(Rumored to be planning a US market pull out)
- Isuzu(Does nothing but sell a few hundred rebadged GM trucks a year. Stopped importing Japan-made vehicles)
The only new brands(notice brand, not company) that took a root in the US
- Lexus
- Infiniti
> how are u gonne compare the chery to the 1985 excel? the only Standard feature the 1985 Excel had was a steering wheel.
And that was enough to get into the US market, because safety standard was a joke, emissions very relaxed, and cars didn’t last 20 years so cheap price did matter because consumers replaced their cars every 4~5 year.
> The Chery will win hands down. oh yes, and the Excel didnt sell in 1985,
Hyundai Excel holds the title of fastest seling new import vehicle in US history. No, it was actually a blockbuster. Only when the problems started to appear 3 years later did the sales nosedive.
> but Hyundai give up on the market? no, they persisted and got to today.
Because it had a $60 billion/year parent that kept feeding it with tens of billions of dollars in R&D and quality improvement, plus a 50% share lock in the protected domestic market. Chery’s parent, The city government of Wuhu, doesn’t have a billion dollars to give to Chery, and this is the reason Chery keeps signing on “foreign joint-ventures” worth feeble $200 million each.
> By your logic, Hyundai shouldn’t have even bothered. Perhaps the notion of hypocricy escapes u?
Young Hyundai Motor Corp was a spoiled brat of a $60 billion/year parent. Chery is an impoverished child of a poor parent named The city government of Wuhu, located in one of China’s most impoverished provinces of Anhui. I know it’s not fair to compare a billionaire’s spoiled brat(Hyundai Motor Corp) with a Chinese peasant’s impoverished son(Chery), but that’s the reality.
Mate im not gonna bother with u, u think what u want if it keeps ur heart going. Sheeeeeeesh
Fourthly, don’t be self-obsessed in thinking that should Chery desire it they cannot get their hands on a Hyundai engine. The fact is, although they might be better than Chery’s at present, they are not an industry benchmark by a long way, any VW engine will be a better option to copy than a Hyundai. If you think the Car industry is Korean/Hyudaicentric then buddy u need to do more research, and no, not on Korean websites. I read one comparison of theirs comparing the NF Sonata to the Accord Euro, claiming that overall package of the Sonata was better than a Euro, only to find out that they had leveled the comparison of a top of the line v6 Sonata Elite against a 2.4L 4 cylinder, base model Euro. I mean good try, but I’d still go for the Honda even if the base model costs more. What’s more narcissistic was their attempt in the US to compare a Sonata to a BMW 5 series. Well, it’s the same size and the Hyundai is cheaper, and that’s pretty much it, everything else they ignored because the 5 series will leave the Hyundai in the stone-age. I mean what’s the point other than to boost ur own ego? Any educated person will understand that BMW and other top brands aren’t exactly standing still as Hyundai grows. U simply have to accept that different marques are aimed at different markets and the Chinese car are starting at the very bottom. It’s not fair to say that they are destined to stay at the bottom or say they won’t improve, which they most certainly will – GM & Toyoya have accepted that, yet you can’t seem to. Is it because you’re in the know better than them? If so I take all I just said back. …..I didn’t think so.
> Fourthly, don’t be self-obsessed in thinking that should Chery desire it they cannot get their hands on a Hyundai engine.
It’s not Chery that wants Hyundai engine and tranny in the Chrysler OEM vehicles, it’s Chrysler. Chrysler simply doesn’t trust Chery powertrain, esepecially after its new “life-time” warranty. Chrysler is trying to pursuade Hyundai to supply the engine and tranny to Chery as a complete module for its US bound OEM vehicles, but Hyundai’s being hesitant because of Chery’s piracy history.
> any VW engine will be a better option to copy than a Hyundai.
You think a vehicle containing a copied engine could be for sale in the US and Europe?
you just let IP and patents lawyers decide that issue. U are not qualified to judge buddy. And I can tell you for a fact that it will be very hard to prove a copy should there be new elements of change introduced. I would know.
> you just let IP and patents lawyers decide that issue.
Yea, and GM and VW both sued Chery in China for IP infringement.
Note: VW sued for use of VW parts, not reproduced VW parts, that does not constitute an Intellectual Property breach.
Note: GM’s case was not proven. There were legal technicalities which meant the majority of the IP rights claimed by GM was not enforceable in China.
Yes, both sued. GM dropped its case and VW’s was not an IP issue. So your example? well it really doesn’t exemplify much now does it.
let me reaffirm, just let IP and patents lawyers decide those issues and u hush hush on the law, it doesn’t speak well of your knowledge.
lets not get confused either. Chrysler may end up with a Hyundai engine, but its almost certain when u ask them what engine they prefer it wouldnt be a Hyundai. They’d want a honda or European engine. So why do they choose hyundai? Its cheap cheap cheap. Cheap being the motivating factor. Im not saying its not better than chery’s but its cheap!
and before u boast how chinese cars copy western designs, have a look in ur own backyard. The Sonata looks so bloody (can i use bloody? cmon Tourism Australia uses it to advertise in the UK)original with its Accord tail lights and Audi front. And the tiburon was widely criticised for ripping off Ferrari
> Chrysler may end up with a Hyundai engine
It is not “may”, Chryslers have had Hyundai-originated engines for three years now.
> but its almost certain when u ask them what engine they prefer it wouldnt be a Hyundai.
Hyundai is the best engine they could license in the open market. Certainly much more reliable than VW’s engines.
> So why do they choose hyundai? Its cheap cheap cheap. Cheap being the motivating factor.
Chrysler didn’t buy the engines directly from Hyundai; they licensed the design and built the engines themselves. But since Chrysler built Hyundai engines are of Hyundai origin, they could be plugged into Hyundais, and vise versa(Hyundai built ones into Chrysler chassis).
Mon dieu!! You used ‘Hyundai’ and ‘best’ in the same sentence. meh, BUZZ WORD: CHEAP
Lastly, I think there is a certain degree of justified fear by Hyundai (and other low end brands) since they brand is still stuck in the ‘cheap n nasty’ category, and that’s exactly where the Chinese competition will be heading. Expect those inflated so called ‘projected sales’ to dip. Why?? for starters they have revised their numbers down for US and China (http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070904/UPDATE/709040381/1148/rss25), and the entry of Chinese cars will only send that margin down on a further free fall, not only in the US. So u can underestimate them at Hyundai’s peril. Only time will tell.