Is the Chinese EV/Hybrid Industry Overhyped?
The Chinese central government, like the North Korean government, has it’s own sort of informal ‘Juche Policy’ where the country must be self sustainable to a certain extent and not rely on imports of nessecary goods if they can be made domestically. Building your country on the back of the automobile has been America’s greatest undoing, now that they are tied to the OPEC cartel of oil producing nations to power their nation to the tune of 17.5 million barrels of oil per day. Like a junkie going for his next fix, America doesn’t like it when the price of oil suddenly jumps high, but loves it when the price is low and the drugs are plentiful. China on the other hand, is still a developing nation and is in a position where they can study from the West’s greatest mistakes.
The research, development, and construction of a domestic EV industry has been at the forefrunt of any ‘green policy’ of the Chinese government for the past few years, and the momentum to build an EV infrastructure has been gaining pace. BYD seem to be at the forefront of hybrid technology in China, with their plug-in hybrids recently being launched (albeit with poor sales so far), every Chinese manufacturer at the recent Shanghai Auto Show had their own hybrid, or pure electric prototype model on display. The only real barrier to following a Juche Policy of being a self sustaining country is that you need massive amounts of electricity to provide power for every Mr. Wang who is going to go home at the end of the day and juice his car up, the ever efficient Chinese solution to this energy bottleneck is to build more nuclear powerstations that will be able to pump out Joules by the dozen. The end result is hopefully that Chinese consumers will take up EV vehicles with the same enthusiasm that they have taken up gasoline powered vehicles. I personally don’t think that China will go totally EV, gasoline engines will also be available to consumers who choose them, but I do expect that Chinese manufacturers will develop super efficient engines under government directives (arguably the best thing about state owned companies is that they do act on govt directives instantly).
The last 100 years of car making have been undoubtedly been controlled by the West, and Japan, but the next 100 years of motoring are arguably set to be Chinese controlled.
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i don’t think any country or automaker can controlled
EV/hybrid industry, but one thing for sure china will be
one of the main actor.
As the saying goes: necessity is the mother of invention. And right now there isn’t enough necessity to drive the newly heralded electric technology. And so as we usher in the latest rise in fuel prices, let’s see where it takes us.
I’d love to see electric drive motor technology go forward, with the possibility of one at each wheel. But I also would be excited to see the introduction of solenoid activated poppet valves in a camshaft-less internal combustion engine.
“The only real barrier to following a Juche Policy of being a self sustaining country is that you need massive amounts of electricity to provide power for every Mr. Wang who is going to go home at the end of the day and juice his car up”
Not true, the greatest problem with electricity supply in China, as in any other country, is during the peak hours. This is exactly why most countries have night tariffs, lower than peak hours.
Recharging cars at night will not be a problem. I’m more worried about the 10-minute charging stations they are planning to build.
Dont most people finish work around 6pm? They are more than likely to charge up their cars as soon as they get home, then turn the TV on, the PC on, kitchen appliances etc. Electricity production is a bottleneck, but isn’t China going down the nuclear route for electricity production now?
In China about 70% of all electricity is used in manufacturing.
And yes, they are planning to build 100 nuclear power plants. Yet they produce less than 2% of their electricity from nuclear plants presently and it won’t become more than 5% before 2020, according to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China .
Home-charged EV cars could be a dead end. It is just not practical to wait hours for a battery to charge-up before the car can be used. Besides, if millions of people in the city are charging-up their cars at the same time, the electric grid probably won’t be able to take it. A more promising solution is the one advocated by Better Place electric car company where the ‘empty’ battery unit is removed and robotically replaced by a fully charged unit in a matter of minutes at a battery replacement station. I thought Chery is cooperating with Better Place on this. Can CCT throw some light on this?
I still have visions of 100 metre long power cords hanging down from apartment windows into the car parks. Chinese apartments are not really set up for overnight charging so thats something that will need to be looked at. That better place idea sounds good though.
Look, there is no question the EV industry in China is overhyped. I have no doubt our little chinese friends will find ways to make some cheap battery powered cars that only occasionally melt down and BBQ some mongolian. But even then, it will be a niche industry. EV vehicles work great for people rich enough to afford them, have a place to charge them, and can afford to have a second vehicle for long distance trips.
On the upside, given the size of the Chinese market, even 5-10% adoption rates of ev will moderate China’s import of gasoline. Look at the US market: driving 100 miles less a month cuts off 1 million b/d of oil — enough to collapse the market.