2010 First Quarter Results in – who are the big winners in Q1?
The first quarter of 2010 is already over and the results appear to show that auto sales are up 34% in April 2010 over a year previously, however April sales were down 10% over March. Total sales reached 1.56 million units in April alone, and January to April sales were ranked at 6.17 million units, up 60.51% over last year.
With the Chinese government raising tax on sub 1.6L cars from a record low of 5% to 7.5% 2009 auto sales of small displacement cars reached a new high, however for 2010 the tax has been raised to 7.5% which has had a knock on effect on domestic automakers that are the driving force behind small car sales.
In April, Chinese-brand passenger cars saw a 3% decrease in sales to 503,000 units compared to the March level, accounting for 45.31% of the total passenger car sales. The Japanese, German, American, Korean and French passenger car sales were 20%、14%、11%、7% and 3% respectively.
During April Chinese domestic brands saw a 3% decrease in sales to 503,000 units when compared with March 2010, Chinese branded auto’s did however account for 45.31% of the market. Foreign auto sales were as following: Japanese (20%) German (14%) American (11%) Korean (7%) and French (3%)
The most popular models of cars from Jan to April were as follows:
- BYD F3 – 114,00
- Elantra – 79,600
- VW Lavida – 77,800
- VW Jetta – 75,000
- Buick Excelle – 72,700
- Xiali – 67,300
- VW Santana – 63,800
- Chevrolet Cruze – 62,300
- Honda Accord – 60,600
- Hyundai Elantra – 58,400
The Elantra appears twice due to Beijing Hyundai offering two versions of the Elantra, they have a newer Yue Dong model that has come in at second, and the older generation model that has come in at tenth. Arguably you could add the two numbers together and the Elantra would be the most popular car in China.VW appears to do well with its multi generation line up, the VW Santana and Jetta are likely to be mostly fleet sales to taxi ranks hence their high rankings month after month.
First quarter production figures are as follows:
- Shanghai GM – 300,500
- Shanghai VW – 270,300
- FAW-VW – 260,050
- BYD – 280,600
- Beijing Hyundai – 194,200
- Dongfeng-Nissan – 192,100
- Chery – 156,600
- Geely – 142,900
- FAW-Toyota – 139,200
- Chang’an-Ford – 138,800
VW are the clear winner in terms of production figures, however they are split over two JV partners where as GM is solely squared up with Shanghai Auto (SAIC). The real surprise here is the number of Chinese automakers that are high up on the list, with BYD, Chery, and Geely pushing far ahead in the charts.
April SUV Sales
The Chinese SUV market is an interesting market with large figures and is a highly competitive segment that is largely controlled by the same group of auto manufacturers.
- Greatwall Hover – 12,755
- Honda CRV – 12,180
- Toyota RAV4 – 8059
- Toyota Highlander – 6524
- Kia Sportage – 6405
The big winner here is Toyota with their two SUV line up which has so far served them well, despite setbacks regarding the Highlander and the RAV4 recalls in China. Incidentally, Toyota sales are up 32% this month in China alone. The Hover has proven to be a massively popular model, although it could be that Greatwall are now selling two or three models based on the Hover nameplate and results are grouped as one.
First Quarter SUV Sales
In the first quarter of 2010, the GWM Hover has appeared on top again:
- GWM Hover – 43,200
- Honda CRV – 39,900
- Toyota RAV4 – 33,500
- Toyota Highlander – 28,000
- Huatai Santa Fe – 25,000
First quarter MPV sales.
The MPV market was hit hard by the recession of 2009 as business users are by far the biggest buyers as home buyers generally have no need for more than 5 seats when your average family is only three years. The MPV market has rebounded strongly in April and the first quarter overall.
April Sales:
In the first quarter, MPV sales were also strong:
- JAC Rui Feng – 23,800
- Buick GL8 – 18,700
- Honda Odyssey – 15,600
- Haima New Premacy – 12,100
- VW Touran – 11,100
Overall, the Chinese market is still performing very well although there was a slight blip in April with slower sales growth. China is still on target to hit an estimated final sales goal of 15 million cars this year, however the summer months are usually slow sales wise due to unusual weather patterns in Southern China, tropical storms in Guangdong, and a drought in Yunnan have peoples attention away from car buying. Also the summer months are usually just too hot for the average Chinese consumer to walk from dealership to dealership looking at cars. The hottest months for car buying are also the coldest, so October – December are likely to be hot months for the Chinese car industry again this year.
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So there, IHC, as I told you before.
Foreign brands have about 55% participation vs. 45% from Chinese brands.
The biggest winner is arguably BYD, who saw a 100% increase in sales from last year. It seems like their sales goal of 800,000 cars this year, up from 400,000 in 2009 is shaping up to be pretty realistic.
And if they eventually come to dominate the Chinese market, their goal of becoming world’s largest automaker by 2025 all of a sudden doesn’t appear to be so ridiculous
Then again the Chinese auto market isn’t that much like the markets around the world. Dominating China means nothing towards dominating the rest of the world. I will change my view when I see some cars that people in countries with well established car market would be willing to buy.
Actually, dominating the world’s number one market has a lot to do with dominating the world. Where better to start than the number one market?
china being no. 1 market is purely a population statistic figure, and in that case china is no. 1 or the biggest in numerous category, but has no direct association with being the highest quality. just because a company is focusing on the no. 1 market doesn’t necessarily mean the product is of latest innovation. in other words just because china is no. 1 market doesn’t mean that Chinese market necessarily is a hot spot to foster the latest technology, standards or innovation. whether that is the case only time can tell.
There is plenty of innovation, and China is becoming an icon for the auto industry. Many manufacturers include their latest technology and come up with new designs only for the Chinese market. So I would say it is a great start. Plus, BYD hybrids/EVs are of latest innovation.
It is indeed ridiculous to say “dominate the Chinese market will be the world’s largest automaker”. As long as BYD is making “Toyota and Honda” models, your dream will never come true.
As I told you all before, BYD’s “sales figure” is just “manufature figure”. You have to read it carefully. The recently launched G3 is on sale now at big discount to move the growing inventory.
I would say BYD’s stratege is to lower the price of F3 to below RMB 50000 and attract the first time buyers in the small towns and villages. While G3 will replace F3 in the big cities, the same game will continue with the “new” L3. You can tell the same story with F6 and I6. For F0 this game will not work as there no market for an upgraded F0 like G3, L3, I6.
OK then when will this game be over? Judging from the large population in China and low percentage of car ownership, BYD will be a major player as long as BYD can keep the current quality and no serious safety issues occur.
When are you going to wake up?
What are you going to say when BYD becomes the world number one in terms of sales? “BYD’s sales figure is just manufature figure.”?!
If you are talking about internal combustion engine based vehicles, I am regret to tell you that your dream will never come true.
Even if you are talking about pure electric powered vehicles, BYD will not be world number one as the “ferrous battery” claimed by BYD is under patent dispute world-wide. There is not a single chance unless BYD can come up with an original battery and up to the specifications that BYD always promote to the public.
When I am going to wake up?
I would also like to ask you the same question.
BYD’s batteries are copies?! Sure?
I can tell you with as much confidence as you have that they will become number one/reach their goal. Who knows who is right and who is wrong? I guess we will find out in 2025. No one can deny them until that time.
Ed, to get your dream come true, there are certain criteria to be met first.
(1)All current internal combustion engines gone
(2)Electric powered vehicles dominate
(3)New battery technology to meet real world demands (heating in winter, cooling in summer, climbing ability ….)
Take a look at past record of BYD, F3DM failed to get popular as promised. Even at half the price of Prius, there is no match in terms of sales. For E6, only a fleet of 10 taxi running in Shenzhen for long term field test. E6 is not availble to the public as promoted. The “ferrous battery” issue is just a propaganda, BYD has admitted it is just another litheum-ion battery where its technology is under patent dispute. I am not saying BYD will not continue to make the “ferrous battery” but the profit gained will be shared by the patent holder.
Ed, please give me some facts to support your claims !!!
No, where are your facts to support your claims? (1), (2), and (3). You can predict the future?! Including what models BYD will bring and how successful they will be? Where is your support for accusing BYD’s batteries of being “propaganda”? Your comments are nothing more than jokes. Like I’ve said, no one can deny them until 2026 comes. So until then, I do not want to hear anymore of your propaganda.
Ed, you are an unashamed idiot, that seems to take a great deal of time commenting on websites, in an industry you demonstratively know nothing about, neither as a supplier or a consumer.
Adminsitrator: I think you should consider filtering the idiotic and jingoisitic rants of Ed (ar*e)
This comment proves you are so much superior and brilliant?! Just because you don’t agree with me doesn’t give you the right to be a jerk.
Why don’t we just filter out any post that can’t leave out name calling. That would take care of almost all problemed post.
Any word on how well the BYD eletric car is doing as a working taxi in Shanghai?
Not Shanghai, Shenzhen.
Guess we’ll have to wait a bit.
Thank you for the correction. Can’t wait to hear some news.
Good news.
40 more E6 are put in service in Shenzhen this week.
Initial customers’ response is good especially the low noise level and reduction in fare.
As an avid auto analyst and follower I am always amazed at the arrogance shown by established brands and their fans to new companies. History does repeat itself.
The Japanese did much to destroy the American and British brands in countries like Australia among others. Initially they made poor quality cars in every respect but learned much more in their first 50 years than the Americans learned since the Model T.
Next came the Koreans and they took less than 20 years to catch up and produce cars the world has bought in the millions. The Chinese brands will take less than 20 years to do the same through acquiring technology (Geely with Volvo) or developing technology (BYD).
Unlike the past, the future will see a greater emphasis on new propulsion systems as oil becomes prohibitive in cost. BYD is well placeed here to greatly benefit.
So history does repeat itself and is doing so again. Anyone who doubts the ability of Chinese brands to carve out a large slice of the global market has their head in the sand like GM and Chrysler have done for a decade or more.